International Business Times
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March 20, 2012 5:54 PM PDT

FXEmpire

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continues to fall, hitting a bottom in today's session of 1641.35 and closed trading at 1648.35 down 18.95.

As worries began to surface over a slowdown in China, commodities including Gold began to tumble.  Gold moved in step with weakness in global stock markets and lower commodity prices, as concerns about a slowdown in China flare up. Over the past two weeks Chinese economic data has been mostly negative and the Chinese PM announced that China was revising their growth rate for 2012 to 7%.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

Economic Releases March 20, 2012 Asia, Europe and the US

Mar. 20

00:00

 

AUD

     

CB Leading Index (MoM) 

1.1%

     

-0.3% 

   

 

08:00

 

EUR

     

German PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

09:15

 

CHF

     

Industrial Production (QoQ) 

7.9%

 

0.4% 

 

-2.0% 

   

 

10:30

 

GBP

     

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

10:30

 

GBP

     

CPI (YoY) 

3.4%

 

3.4% 

 

3.6% 

   

 

10:30

 

GBP

     

RPI (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.4% 

 

3.9% 

   

 

12:00

 

GBP

     

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-5 

 

-3 

   

 

12:30

 

EUR

     

Spanish Trade Balance 

-3.65B

 

-4.50B 

 

-4.50B 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

     

Building Permits 

0.72M

 

0.69M 

 

0.68M 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

     

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.70M 

 

0.71M 

   

 

14:00

 

RUB

     

Russian Retail Sales (YoY) 

7.7%

 

7.3% 

 

6.8% 

   

 

14:00

 

RUB

     

Russian Unemployment Rate 

6.5%

 

6.7% 

 

6.6% 

   

 

16:30

 

USD

     

4-Week Bill Auction 

0.100%

     

0.070% 

   

 

10:30     GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England's policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members' interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.

13:30     CAD      Leading Indicators (MoM)

The Leading Indicators Index is a composite index based on 10 economic indicators, that is designed to predict the future direction of the economy. The report tends to have a limited impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.

 15:00    USD      Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29


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